Electability Barometer

Projected Electoral College votes based on latest head-to-head polls

Updated Nov 02 2020

Real Clear Politics

Biden: 335 delegates

Trump: 203 delegates

DC:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 4.1%,

Clinton (D): 92.8%;

Spread: D+88.7%

HI:

4 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 30.1%,

Clinton (D): 62.3%;

Spread: D+32.2%

Trump (R): 31%,

Biden (D): 60.7%;

Spread: D+29.7%

VT:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 32.6%,

Clinton (D): 61.1%;

Spread: D+28.5%

MA:

11 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 33.5%,

Clinton (D): 60.8%;

Spread: D+27.3%

MD:

10 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 35.3%,

Clinton (D): 60.5%;

Spread: D+25.2%

NY:

29 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 37.5%,

Clinton (D): 58.8%;

Spread: D+21.3%

WA:

12 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 38.2%,

Clinton (D): 54.4%;

Spread: D+16.2%

IL:

20 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 39.4%,

Clinton (D): 55.4%;

Spread: D+16%

RI:

4 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 39.8%,

Clinton (D): 55.4%;

Spread: D+15.6%

Trump (R): 39%,

Biden (D): 53.5%;

Spread: D+14.5%

CT:

7 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 41.2%,

Clinton (D): 54.5%;

Spread: D+13.3%

NJ:

14 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 41.8%,

Clinton (D): 55%;

Spread: D+13.2%

DE:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 41.9%,

Clinton (D): 53.4%;

Spread: D+11.5%

Trump (R): 40.3%,

Biden (D): 51.7%;

Spread: D+11.4%

Trump (R): 42.4%,

Biden (D): 53.4%;

OR:

7 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 41.1%,

Clinton (D): 51.7%;

Spread: D+10.6%

Trump (R): 39.7%,

Biden (D): 50.3%;

Spread: D+10.6%

Univ. of Colorado/YouGov:

Trump (R): 38%,

Biden (D): 47%;

Trump (R): 44.1%,

Biden (D): 50.7%;

Trump (R): 44.7%,

Biden (D): 49.8%;

Trump (R): 43.7%,

Biden (D): 48%;

Trump (R): 45%,

Biden (D): 48.6%;

Trump (R): 46.3%,

Biden (D): 49.2%;

Trump (R): 47.3%,

Biden (D): 48.3%;

Trump (R): 46.6%,

Biden (D): 47.6%;

Trump (R): 47.4%,

Biden (D): 47.8%;

Trump (R): 47.8%,

Biden (D): 47.2%;

Trump (R): 47.4%,

Biden (D): 46.2%;

Trump (R): 47.7%,

Biden (D): 46.5%;

Trump (R): 47.2%,

Biden (D): 45.8%;

East Carolina U.:

Trump (R): 51%,

Biden (D): 44%;

Trump (R): 53%,

Biden (D): 39%;

AK:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 52.9%,

Clinton (D): 37.7%;

Spread: R+15.2%

UT:

6 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 45.9%,

Clinton (D): 27.8%;

Spread: R+18.1%

MS:

6 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 58.3%,

Clinton (D): 39.7%;

Spread: R+18.6%

Trump (R): 58%,

Biden (D): 39%;

MO:

10 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 57.1%,

Clinton (D): 38%;

Spread: R+19.1%

IN:

11 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 57.2%,

Clinton (D): 37.9%;

Spread: R+19.3%

LA:

8 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 58.1%,

Clinton (D): 38.4%;

Spread: R+19.7%

MT:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 56.5%,

Clinton (D): 36%;

Spread: R+20.5%

KS:

6 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 57.2%,

Clinton (D): 36.2%;

Spread: R+21%

NE:

5 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 60.3%,

Clinton (D): 34%;

Spread: R+26.3%

AR:

6 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 60.4%,

Clinton (D): 33.8%;

Spread: R+26.6%

ID:

4 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 59.2%,

Clinton (D): 29.6%;

Spread: R+29.6%

KY:

8 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 62.5%,

Clinton (D): 32.7%;

Spread: R+29.8%

SD:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 61.5%,

Clinton (D): 31.7%;

Spread: R+29.8%

ND:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 64.1%,

Clinton (D): 27.8%;

Spread: R+36.3%

OK:

7 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 65.3%,

Clinton (D): 28.9%;

Spread: R+36.4%

WV:

5 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 68.7%,

Clinton (D): 26.5%;

Spread: R+42.2%

WY:

3 delegates;

2016

:

Trump (R): 70.1%,

Clinton (D): 22.5%;

Spread: R+47.6%

Five Thirty Eight

Biden: 350 delegates

Trump: 188 delegates

Trump (R): 6.7%,

Biden (D): 89.8%;

Spread: D+83.1%

Trump (R): 28.3%,

Biden (D): 66.1%;

Spread: D+37.8%

Trump (R): 29.3%,

Biden (D): 65.9%;

Spread: D+36.6%

Trump (R): 30.5%,

Biden (D): 64%;

Spread: D+33.5%

Trump (R): 32.6%,

Biden (D): 63%;

Spread: D+30.4%

Trump (R): 31.9%,

Biden (D): 61.6%;

Spread: D+29.7%

Trump (R): 33%,

Biden (D): 62.4%;

Spread: D+29.4%

Trump (R): 33.4%,

Biden (D): 61.3%;

Spread: D+27.9%

Trump (R): 32.4%,

Biden (D): 57.4%;

Trump (R): 34.9%,

Biden (D): 58.7%;

Spread: D+23.8%

Trump (R): 35.4%,

Biden (D): 58.5%;

Spread: D+23.1%

Trump (R): 37.7%,

Biden (D): 58.6%;

Spread: D+20.9%

Trump (R): 38%,

Biden (D): 57.6%;

Spread: D+19.6%

Trump (R): 39.7%,

Biden (D): 55.1%;

Spread: D+15.4%

Trump (R): 40.4%,

Biden (D): 53.9%;

Spread: D+13.5%

Trump (R): 41.3%,

Biden (D): 53.4%;

Spread: D+12.1%

Trump (R): 42.2%,

Biden (D): 53.7%;

Spread: D+11.5%

Trump (R): 42.3%,

Biden (D): 53.5%;

Spread: D+11.2%

Trump (R): 42.9%,

Biden (D): 53.8%;

Spread: D+10.9%

Trump (R): 42.6%,

Biden (D): 52%;

Trump (R): 43.7%,

Biden (D): 51.9%;

Trump (R): 43%,

Biden (D): 51.1%;

Trump (R): 45.2%,

Biden (D): 50.3%;

Trump (R): 44.5%,

Biden (D): 49.4%;

Trump (R): 45.7%,

Biden (D): 48.6%;

Trump (R): 46.5%,

Biden (D): 48.9%;

Trump (R): 47%,

Biden (D): 48.8%;

Trump (R): 47.1%,

Biden (D): 48.4%;

Trump (R): 47.6%,

Biden (D): 46.8%;

Trump (R): 48.5%,

Biden (D): 47.5%;

Trump (R): 47.5%,

Biden (D): 46%;

Trump (R): 50.2%,

Biden (D): 45.3%;

Trump (R): 51.1%,

Biden (D): 43.7%;

Trump (R): 51.2%,

Biden (D): 43.7%;

Trump (R): 51.2%,

Biden (D): 43.4%;

Trump (R): 51.9%,

Biden (D): 42.1%;

Trump (R): 52.5%,

Biden (D): 42.7%;

Trump (R): 51.8%,

Biden (D): 41.7%;

Spread: R+10.1%

Trump (R): 52.2%,

Biden (D): 41.7%;

Spread: R+10.5%

Trump (R): 54.2%,

Biden (D): 41.3%;

Spread: R+12.9%

Trump (R): 54%,

Biden (D): 38.9%;

Spread: R+15.1%

Trump (R): 55.5%,

Biden (D): 39.6%;

Spread: R+15.9%

Trump (R): 55.5%,

Biden (D): 39.1%;

Spread: R+16.4%

Trump (R): 56.2%,

Biden (D): 38.9%;

Spread: R+17.3%

Trump (R): 57.1%,

Biden (D): 38%;

Spread: R+19.1%

Trump (R): 57.5%,

Biden (D): 38.1%;

Spread: R+19.4%

Trump (R): 57.8%,

Biden (D): 36.7%;

Spread: R+21.1%

Trump (R): 59%,

Biden (D): 36.2%;

Spread: R+22.8%

Trump (R): 59.1%,

Biden (D): 36.2%;

Spread: R+22.9%

Trump (R): 61.6%,

Biden (D): 34.2%;

Spread: R+27.4%

Trump (R): 62.4%,

Biden (D): 30.9%;

Spread: R+31.5%

Move the mouse over a barometer for state-by-state poll numbers and dates.

Touch below a barometer for state-by-state poll numbers and dates.

Methodology

The candidate who gains the most Electoral College delegates wins the presidency. This means that national polls (shown in the upper, narrower band) can be misleading, because a candidate can win the popular vote yet lose the presidency. The Electability Barometer uses the latest state-by-state polls from the critical swing states to project who would win head-to-head against Trump in the Electoral College.

Poll data are updated daily from the Real Clear Politics website and the Five Thirty Eight website.

Some of these polls are several months old. Move your mouse over the barometers to see the poll dates and other details for each state, and click to go to the source numbers.

A week is a long time in politics, and it is dangerous to draw the obvious conclusion from the graphics. A scandal, a medical crisis or a hostile media campaign could easily make nonsense of these numbers.

2020 Presidential Election Democratic Primary electability barometer graphic

Creative Commons License

ElectabilityBarometer.com is based on works at realclearpolitics.com and at FiveThirtyEight.com, and is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Privacy Policy: This website has no cookies and doesn't directly collect any data about its visitors. As with every other website, some information about your visit will be collected by our service providers (Amazon and CloudFlare), and by your internet service provider (e.g. AT&T), and by the website that directed you here (e.g. Google), and possibly by your device operating system supplier and/or your browser supplier.